The surge in US imports has further promoted global shipping imbalances, and ocean freight rates may rise to next year!

The surge in U.S. imports has led to the chaos of global container transportation. Since 2019, U.S. imports have increased by 10%
every year, while other trades have grown moderately.
Low inventories, a strong US economy, and shippers who don’t want out-of-stocks or empty shelves make demand 
prospects maintain strong growth until at least the beginning of 2022.
According to Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea Intelligence Maritime Analysis,
The tightening of container ship supply is entirely the result of North American demand. It quoted data from the Container Trade
Statistics Bureau (T) that since September 2020, the monthly new demand in North America alone has increased by about 
500,000 TEU over the same period in 2019.
This growth is most pronounced in the Trans-Pacific region.
CTS data shows that from June 2020 to May 2021, the monthly TEU imports from Greater China and Southeast Asia 
into the West Coast of the United States averaged 29% higher than the same period in 2019.
Most of the increase is due to the epidemic. Murphy quoted data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis as saying that by May
2021, consumers will spend 25% more on durable goods than the annualized level in 2019.
As many Americans still enjoy pandemic subsidies such as unemployment benefits and COVID-19 blockade, the growth in demand
for North American container ships will not end in sight.
Murphy said that after the surge in demand, US retailers will need to increase their inventories far above 2019 levels.
Many companies have also signaled to investors. American consumer demand does not seem to ease, and they will have
to continue to pressure ocean carriers to continue to replenish inventories.
Freight rates are still not falling, North American routes continue to rise
The latest issue of the Global Container Freight Index launched by the Baltic Shipping Exchange and Freightos shows that the 
Asia-Northern Europe freight index has hardly changed, at US$13,208 per 40 feet (an increase of 01%), compared to US$1679 in
the same period last year.
However, in fact, very few short-term businesses are shipped according to these rates, and many shippers need to pay about 
4000 to 5000 US dollars in additional premiums.
For trans-Pacific shippers, the situation is equally grim. All-inclusive rates (total freight rates) have soared, 
and space (especially those leading to US West Coast ports) is also very difficult to ensure.According to the FBX
index, the freight rate that had just dropped in the previous period has soared again.
The basic spot rate to the West Coast of the United States was US$6,564 per 40 pounds, up 12% from last week, and to the East 
Coast was US$10,503 per foot, up 7% from the previous week.

Post time: Jul-29-2021

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